A Vision for the National Weather Service: Road Map for the by National Research Council, National Weather Service,

By National Research Council, National Weather Service, Division on Engineering and Physical Sciences, Commission on Engineering and Technical Systems, National Weather Service Modernization Committee, Panel on the Road Map for the Future

In this examine, the committee explores methods the nationwide climate provider (NWS) can make the most of carrying on with advances in technology and expertise to fulfill the demanding situations of the longer term. The predictions are involved in the objective yr 2025. simply because particular predictions concerning the country of technology and expertise or the NWS greater than 25 years sooner or later usually are not completely exact, the target of this file is to spot and spotlight tendencies which are probably to persuade switch. The Panel at the street Map for the longer term nationwide climate provider constructed an confident imaginative and prescient for 2025 in line with advances in technological know-how and technology.

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Numerical approximations to these laws describe the atmosphere system, including the oceans, land, and ice surfaces, and are solved on computers as initial value problems. The scientific and mathematical basis for NWP, which will be even more important in 2025 than it is today, was predicted by Lewis Fry Richardson in Weather Prediction by Numerical Process, published in 1922. (The history and scientific basis of NWP are summarized in Tribbia and Anthes [1987]). , 1998). The first experimental NWP model was run in April 1950 for a region encompassing North America on a primitive computer called the ENIAC (electronic numerical integrator and calculator), which was far less powerful than today’s hand-held calculators.

In contrast, soundings derived by the radio occultation technique on polar orbiters (discussed below) have lower horizontal but higher vertical resolution than radiometric soundings. Radio occultation soundings are not affected by clouds, precipitation, or aerosols and are selfcalibrating. Thus, radiometric and radio occultation sounding methods are synergistic, as are geostationary and polarorbiting satellites. 4 In a report on the continuity of spatial and temporal coverage by the weather satellites in the NESDIS program, the National Weather Service Modernization Committee evaluated NOAA’s plans for continuing operations of the geostationary operational environmental satellite (GOES) program and the national polar-orbiting operational environmental satellite system (NPOESS) (NRC, 1997).

Analyses and initializations were, in general, produced twice each day, corresponding to the global rawinsonde observation times of 00 and 12 UTC. Changes in the methods of atmospheric data analysis are reviewed in Daley (1991). Data Assimilation In recent years, the analysis and forecast portions of the NWP process have become much more closely linked through the direct assimilation of data into models. Observations are used to “correct” or adjust model predictions wherever and whenever the observations are available.

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