By Robin Blackburn
A searing examine the monetary hindrance of an getting older society, with radical new proposals.
Most international locations face the long run with an getting older inhabitants, but so much governments are decreasing on pensions and the care prone wanted by means of the aged. Robin Blackburn exposes the perverse reasoning and unique pursuits that have mixed to provide this nonsensical situation. This up-to-date paperback version of Age surprise encompasses a new preface explaining why the credits crunch and eurozone trouble have had one of these devastating effect and outlining how to warrantly first rate pensions and care provision.
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Additional resources for Age Shock: How Finance is Failing Us
Contributions to pension provision can be adjusted to have a countercyclical impact. In my calculation of the growth of the universal pension fund (in Chapter 7), I assume a 5 per cent rate of return. In 2006, and against the background of the promises made by the advocates of pension privatiza tion, this was a comparatively modest rate. The privatizers usually employ a 7 per cent, or even 9 per cent, rate of return ± levels which always looked optimistic. In the last deeply troubled decade such rates are clearly unrealistic, and even 5 per cent is demanding.
In July 2011 the UK Office of Budget Responsibility offered new estimates of the likely rise in ageing costs and revenues as the over 65s increase from 17 per cent in 2015 to 26 per cent in 2060. 4 Source: Office of Budget Responsibility, July 2011, pp. 8±9 Made on the basis of existing legislation, these projections only concern the state pensions and public service pensions. They present a serious rather than a crushing challenge. ) The net extra expenditure that is likely to be caused by an ageing population will total 5 per cent of GDP by 2050.
By xxxiv age shock 2011 there were signs of slackening demand in China, and of government reluctance to undertake a new stimulus package. German manufacturers retained a competitive edge, in part because they were supported by a public, not for profit research network, the Fraunhofer Gesellschaft, founded in 1947. 44 This network is vital to German manufacturing prowess. Although Germany was hit by the crisis, it recovered quite quickly thanks to booming exports to Asia. A system of rebates for younger and older workers reduced both labour costs and the size of the tax wedge on employee incomes (noted as a problem in Chapter 6, below).
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